One of the most accurate pollsters in politics is admitting even his Trafalgar Group polling is going to undercount “submerged” MAGA Republican voters in the 2022 midterm election.
“The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing,” Robert C. Cahaly concluded in a series of tweets. “All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these ‘submerged voters.'”
Cahaly noted President Joe Biden’s demonization of MAGA Republicans have effectively put the targeted voting bloc into hiding publicly and from pollsters.
“Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them,” Cahaly wrote on Twitter. “This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.
“I call this new group ‘submerged voters,'” Cahaly added on Twitter. “They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls.
“At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.”
Cahaly has long warned about the silent voters that polls cannot seem to get to, because they are submerged in the population and afraid to express their opinions for fear of reprisal.
“In 2016 Trump supporters were called ‘deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” Cahaly’s Twitter thread began. “This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.”
Cahaly noted that same phenomenon continued into “cancel culture” and made Trump supporters further remain withdrawn from society in 2020; hence, polls still undercounting his support.
“In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with ‘Woke’ culture found themselves being ‘canceled’ or ‘doxed,'” Calahy wrote. “This led to ‘hidden voters’ that ‘most’ polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations.”